Week 6 NFL odds, picks, 欧博predictions: Our NFL bes_欧博ABG官网-欧博官方网址-会员登入

Week 6 of the NFL season started with another wild "Thursday Night Football" game in which the New York Giants upset the Philadelphia Eagles 34-17 at MetLife Stadium as 7.5-point underdogs. It was another big win for sportsbooks.

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

Our NFL handicapping team of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng, Michael Fiddle and Matt Jacob combine to give their best bets for Week 6 of the NFL season. This article will be updated throughout the weekend.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Denver Broncos (-7.5, 43.5) at New York Jets in London

Feng: The Jets have yet to win a game and are -8 in turnover margin this season. They have lost the football on seven of the nine fumbles they have committed, and they have zero takeaways. Even the Jets can’t keep this up.

Otherwise, New York has played relatively well. Based on data from the current season, I have the Jets about 2 points worse than the NFL average. My model at The Power Rank favors Denver by 6.5 points at a neutral site in London.

Bet: Jets +7.5

Jacob: Justin Fields has done some damage with his legs in his first season with the Jets — which is a good thing, because he hasn’t done much damage with his arm (at least not prior to garbage time).

Fields rushed for 48, 49 and 81 yards in his first three games before last week, when Dallas limited him to just 26 yards on seven carries. The Cowboys also dropped Fields five times, equalling the number of sacks he took in the first three games.

Now here comes Denver’s ferocious pass rush, which got to Jalen Hurts six times in last week’s stunning comeback win at Philadelphia. Not only do the Broncos now have an NFL-high 21 sacks — five more than any other squad — but no quarterback has rushed for more than 6 yards against Denver.

That honor belongs to the Chargers’ Justin Herbert. Rushing outputs from the other four QBs the Broncos have faced: 4 yards (Jake Browning), 3 yards (Hurts), 2 yards (Daniel Jones) and zero yards (Cam Ward).

In Ward’s defense, he didn’t have a single carry. But that leads to another point: Quarterbacks have just 13 total rushes against the Broncos. Fields (31 attempts) might be the first QB to test Denver — likely out of necessity. But it’s not going to end well.

Bet: Justin Fields under 36.5 rushing yards (-118)

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 38.5)

Jacob: As predicted in this space last week, the Browns held Minnesota running back Jordan Mason well under his 67.5-yard rushing projection. Mason finished with 52 ground yards, 14 of which came on one scamper.

I’m now 2-for-2 backing Cleveland’s defense to shut down an opposing team’s running back; in Week 4, Detroit’s David Montgomery had just 12 yards on nine carries (he was projected for 43.5 yards). So why not go back to the well a third time and fade Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren on Sunday?

Warren (knee injury) sat out his team’s Week 4 game against Minnesota in Dublin, then got more time to heal during last week’s bye. He was a full participant in practice this week and is set to resume his lead-back duties against Cleveland.

[Yahoo Sports TV is here! Watch live shows and highlights 24/7]

Thing is, Warren hardly looked like the second coming of Franco Harris in his first three games, compiling 132 yards on 43 carries (3.1 yards per rush). His top two performances: 47 yards against New England and 48 yards against Seattle.

The Patriots have the NFL’s fourth-best rushing defense, while the Seahawks rank third. The Browns? Still No. 1, yielding just 75.6 yards per game and 2.98 yards per carry (nearly a half-yard better than another team). Among the other tailbacks Cleveland has smothered: Josh Jacobs (30 yards), Derrick Henry (23 yards) and Chase Brown (43 yards).

Toss in the fact that Warren might be on a pitch count — especially with how well backup Kenneth Gainwell looked in Dublin — and I’ll be surprised if he clears 35 yards Sunday.

Bet: Jaylen Warren under 48.5 rushing yards (-110)

Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5, 43.5) at Miami Dolphins

Fiddle: The total for this game opened at 46.5 when Week 5 ended and the Week 6 odds came online — it's now down to 43.5.

Instead of chasing steam on the under, I am looking for a correlated angle by going under on a player prop. Miami RB Devon Achane has had to take an increased role as a wide receiver in the wake of the Tyreek Hill injury; Achane is both lining up at snaps at WR and taking a lot of screen work in the passing game.

The Dolphins' offensive scheme uses short passes as a de facto run game. His rushing yards in the player prop market opened around 59.5, and since has been bet down across the market. That signals the sharp direction. At BetMGM, we can still grab under 60.5 yards at -118 vig. The slightly increased vig is definitely worth the gap in yards.

This comes after a week where he was unable to get going in the run game and help Miami control the lead. The Dolphins ended up blowing a 17-0 lead and eventually losing to the Carolina Panthers. Look for Ollie Gordon to be more involved in clear rushing opportunities, and Achane to be the primary RB but be more effective in the passing game.

Bet: Devon Achane under 60.5 Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5, 44.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Jacob: Here’s a list of wide receivers who have destroyed Baltimore’s awful secondary this season:

Buffalo’s Keon Coleman (eight catches, 112 yards); Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown (seven catches, 77 yards); Kansas City’s Xavier Worthy (five catches, 83 yards); and Houston’s Christian Kirk and Nico Collins (combined nine catches, 116 yards).

You know what those five wideouts have in common — besides all but Kirk being WR1’s? None lead the NFL in receptions or receiving yards. Those distinctions belong to the Rams’ Puka Nacua.

Although he had “only” 85 receiving yards in last week’s upset loss to San Francisco — a season low — Nacua still hauled in 10 of quarterback Matthew Stafford’s 12 targets. That gives Nacua double-digit receptions in four of five games (his floor being eight catches in Week 2 at Tennessee).

The Titans are actually the worst defense Nacua has faced in terms of passing yards allowed (220 per game, which is 21st). Baltimore? It yields 262.4 yards per contest, second-worst in the NFL and ahead of only the Cowboys. Also, the Ravens are tied with Dallas for most completions allowed (131).

Spoiler alert: Baltimore isn’t slowing down Nacua on Sunday. So here’s an admittedly square two-fer …

Bets: Puka Nacua over 8.5 receptions (+100); Nacua over 101.5 receiving yards (-110)

Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders (-4, 41.5)

Craig: Both teams sit in the bottom five in Offensive EPA, but don’t let that scare you off an over in this Week 7 slugfest. Each side enters 1–4 and has been forced into “big-play-or-bust” mode early in the season — reflected in surprisingly high average depth of target (ADOT) metrics for both offenses.

Defensively, it’s been a different story. Opponents have marched up and down the field with ease against these two, and both units rank among the league’s shortest depth of target. Now, with comparable talent across the board, this matchup finally gives each offense a chance to trade blows rather than grind against superior defenses. My numbers suggest these attacks are better than public perception, so I’ll root for points.

Bet: Over 41

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-14, 44.5)

Craig: There have been 86 NFL games over the past 10 years with a favorite of greater than two touchdowns. In a league built on parity, those kinds of mismatches are rare — and usually signal a massive gap in roster quality, quarterback play, or both. Yet history shows that when the market stretches this far, it’s often for good reason. In those spots, favorites have covered nearly 59% of the time against the spread.

It makes logical sense — lines this big appear only when the difference between the teams is too glaring to ignore, but with a baseline of teams historically ending within single digits, it's hard for market-makers to post a number high enough.

Bet: Packers -14

Sunday Night Football

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 53)

Fiddle: This is one of the highest betting totals of the entire season. For the past few years in the NFL, anytime a line has gotten above 52 there has always been some market resistance and it gets hit back down a bit. With this line moving from 49.5 early in the week to now 53, the buy point has come to play the under.

The Lions are a very strong run team and the Kansas City Chiefs are exceptional in the short passing game. If these teams rely on that grinding offensive approach, possessions can be limited and this might be a clear under. In the NFL betting market, there are so many sharp bettors because of the high limits and because it's the most major market in sports betting, so there will always be some sort of disagreement by smart bettors. It's just about timing it, and normally moves like this signal just about when parties on the other side are going to come in.

I suspect this line closes a point lower at 52 and is clearly worth a play towards the under. Because its been so one-directional right now, I suspect this does not happen until Sunday afternoon, so get in while you can on the under 53.

(责任编辑：)

搜索

热门标签:

Week 6 NFL odds, picks, 欧博predictions: Our NFL bes